• European Commission Pres. Ursula von der Leyen said Thursday that the EU plans to impose tariffs on grain imports from Russia and Belarus to prevent the Kremlin from destabilizing its market. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The proposal, which must be approved by a majority vote of the EU member states, would apply to cereals, oilseeds, and derived products exported from Russia and Belarus to the bloc’s 27 countries. Euronews
• The tariff could be as high as 50%, meaning Russia would pay an extra €95 ($103) per ton of grain sent to the EU, which currently sells for around €220 ($238). Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• According to von der Leyen, the plan is to block the Kremlin from selling grain allegedly stolen from Ukraine. In 2023, the EU imported 4.2M metric tons of Russian grains for $1.4B, far less than the 300M metric tons it bought from EU suppliers. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The proposal reportedly included Belarus due to its close ties to Russia and to prevent Moscow from using Minsk to circumvent the new tariffs. The EU also renewed tariff-free access to the bloc for Ukrainian agricultural products through to next June. UPI
• The EU was one of Russia’s primary trade partners before it invaded Ukraine. According to the Commission, imports from third countries, such as the US and Argentina, will partially fill the shortfall. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Anti-Russia narrative:

• The EU continues to take a strong stand against Russia, and the latest tariff proposal benefits the EU and its allies on multiple fronts. Russia is trying to use cheap grain to disturb the European market, and it’s trying to benefit from record-high food prices. In addition to stopping Russia’s exploitative tactics, the EU’s tariffs will also reduce revenue for Moscow’s war machine as it continues to rampage through Ukraine. The Kremlin will continue to face penalties from the EU as long as it continues its unjust war and destabilization campaign.
  FORTUNE EUROPE

Pro-Russia narrative:

• The EU’s plan to impose tariffs on Russian and Belarusian agricultural products will only harm European consumers, and the hollow efforts will have little to no impact on Russia’s economy. For more than two years, the EU and other Western regimes have tried their best to hurt Russia’s finances. However, citizens of their own countries are the only ones harmed by these sanctions and tariffs. The EU would be smart to conduct trade with Russia and allow its people to feed their families without spending their entire paychecks.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There’s a 27% chance that Ukraine will join the EU before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)