I’ve been wondering why this isn’t talked about more.
All those commercial mortgages are intertwined with banks, and retirement accounts, and all sorts of “stable” investments.
Plus it’s not just the offices directly affected by pandemic remote work that aren’t renewing their leases. New companies wont lease a building since it’s not expected anymore, and big companies will be counting the beans to see how much they can save by reducing office space.
This is a phase shift in commercial real estate that I don’t think banks have budgeted for.
I’m sure everyone on wall street knows it’s coming, but if they can act surprised and get another bailout in a major crash, that’s just going to cost you and me our futures, again.
To clarify (what I think you’re talking about), CMBS ie commercial mortgage backed securities is eerily similar to the bullshit that kicked off the '80 ‘great recession’, which was speculation / shorting on MBS. I remember reading an economist at the time of '08 saying this is very bad, but he predicts we’ll just about scrape through it, followed by a long period of stagnating growth, zero lessons learned, then a crash which will make '08 look like a fender bender.
I always hoped he was wrong but day by day, month by month, I saw his prediction coming true.
I’ve been wondering why this isn’t talked about more.
All those commercial mortgages are intertwined with banks, and retirement accounts, and all sorts of “stable” investments.
Plus it’s not just the offices directly affected by pandemic remote work that aren’t renewing their leases. New companies wont lease a building since it’s not expected anymore, and big companies will be counting the beans to see how much they can save by reducing office space.
This is a phase shift in commercial real estate that I don’t think banks have budgeted for.
I’m sure everyone on wall street knows it’s coming, but if they can act surprised and get another bailout in a major crash, that’s just going to cost you and me our futures, again.
To clarify (what I think you’re talking about), CMBS ie commercial mortgage backed securities is eerily similar to the bullshit that kicked off the '80 ‘great recession’, which was speculation / shorting on MBS. I remember reading an economist at the time of '08 saying this is very bad, but he predicts we’ll just about scrape through it, followed by a long period of stagnating growth, zero lessons learned, then a crash which will make '08 look like a fender bender.
I always hoped he was wrong but day by day, month by month, I saw his prediction coming true.