Warming surpassed the 1.5-degree mark for one month or more in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, and again in 2023.
Measured across the entire year, 2023 will conclude 1.4 degrees hotter than the preindustrial era, and at least one of the next five years is expected to surpass 1.5 degrees. But it’s unclear at what point the world will have officially breached the Paris target, as the pact offers no clear guidance on this matter.

By Copernicus’s metric, we’re currently at about 1.25C long-term average and on track to pass 1.5C in about a decade.